Daily Analysis 24 June 2022 (10-Minute Read)
A fantastic Friday to you as markets find their footing for the first time in weeks, boosted largely by renewed appetite for bonds keep a lid on yields.
In brief (TL:DR)
U.S. stocks ticked higher on Thursday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.64%), S&P 500 (+0.95%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+1.62%) all higher as renewed appetite for bonds put pressure on otherwise soaring yields.
Asian stocks finished nicely on Friday, headed to the weekend in the green, taking their cue from Wall Street.
Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell to 3.099% (yields fall when bond prices rise) as global appetite for bonds rose in the face of increasing economic uncertainty.
The dollar fell.
Oil gained with July 2022 contracts for WTI Crude Oil (Nymex) (+1.46%) at US$105.79 against a backdrop of a weakening dollar and a rise in tech.
Gold was flat with August 2022 contracts for Gold (Comex) (-0.11%) at US$1,827.70.
Bitcoin (+1.66%) rose to US$20,862, buoyed by risk appetite from falling bond yields and a rebound in tech stocks which the benchmark cryptocurrency has had an increasingly strong correlation with.
In today's issue...
Stacking Those Dollars Regardless the Cost
Stocks Get Hammered Across the Board, No Sector Safe
Crypto Crash Survivors Could be Future Tech Giants
Increased global economic uncertainty is having an unexpected effect on demand for haven assets - with the prospect of rising interest rates likely to send yields northwards, investors are clamoring for bonds as risk assets have come under strain.
The irony is that by buying more bonds, investors are entering an increasingly crowded trade that is putting a lid on yields headed higher and boosting demand for stocks, especially tech.
Whether or not this virtuous cycle is durable is less certain.
Asian markets closed into the weekend higher with Tokyo's Nikkei 225 (+1.23%), Seoul's Kospi Index (+2.26%), Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (+2.09%) and Sydney’s ASX 200 (+0.77%) all higher.
1. Stacking Those Dollars Regardless the Cost
Global investors are holding on to dollars even after selling American assets as economic uncertainty grows and central bank policies diverge.
Demand for dollars will act as a millstone around the neck of emerging market assets, as demand for local currencies wane in favor of the greenback.
More often than not, investors convert cash into their local currency, when selling U.S. assets. For instance, if a foreign investor sold some U.S. stocks, they would typically convert the proceeds of that sale into their domestic currency.
But lately U.S capital flow data suggests that the international stockpile of dollars is close to its all time high, with more investors opting to hold on to dollars in preference of their domestic currency.
As monetary policies globally diverge, the chances of a global recession are making the greenback shine once again, especially as interest rates in the dollar go up.
The dollar also provided haven to investors as the S&P 500 set foot into bear territory last week, dropping 20% from its most recent high.
Despite many claims that the dollar remains overvalued, for now there appears to be few (if any) alternatives.
The Swiss franc and Japanese yen have typically been haven currencies during times of economic turmoil, but the Bank of Japan’s loose monetary policy have made the yen less attractive against a backdrop of global inflation while the Swiss franc has been sidelined.
Nevertheless, there is the possibility that when the war in Ukraine ends and supply chains are rehabilitated, the dollar could weaken.
Later this week, all eyes will be on U.S housing market data with investors alert for any sign that higher interest rates could spark off a fresh housing crisis.
2. Stocks Get Hammered Across the Board, No Sector Safe
Energy stocks which were the one bright spot amidst the current market malaise, have fallen alongside other sectors on recession concerns.
Concerns over demand for oil has seen the energy sector decline alongside the broader market.
You know markets are bad when even energy companies get hammered in a time like this.
With the S&P 500 now officially in a bear market, the one bright spot remained the oil and gas industry, which benefited from soaring energy prices amidst sanctions against Russia, for its invasion of Ukraine.
But now even that trade looks to be at risk as recession fears mount and the price of crude slips.
Even the most insistent bull is having to question their optimism when the cycle of high inflation feeding into higher rates is pushing the global economy closer to recession.
Companies are having to face multiple headwinds, from rising costs of raw materials and labor, to weakening demand as inflationary pressures bite and this has the potential to spark off a recessionary spiral.
In times like these, resilience is key as the markets test the grit of investors.
Unexpected swings coupled with the Fed’s aggressive hikes, flipping of the liquidity tide and the economic slowdown, will continue to pressurize stocks, fuel volatility and challenge even the most resolved investment theses.
3. Crypto Crash Survivors Could be Future Tech Giants
Persistence is everything in business, and there are some who believe that the survivors of the current Crypto Winter could go on to lead the most valuable Web3 businesses in the future.
In an interview with Bloomberg, Bank of England Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe suggests that the lessons learned from the current cryptocurrency downturn could provide the setting for a future clutch of highly successful Web3 companies in the future.
While cryptocurrency prices are being challenged at the moment, there’s more than an outside chance that the survivors of this latest winter could become the killer apps of a future spring, at least according to the Bank of England’s Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe.
Speaking with Bloomberg, Cunliffe compared the downward spiral of cryptocurrency prices with the bursting of the dotcom bubble in 2001, and noted that those who emerged from the crash, could one day head up the most important tech companies, the way Amazon.com (+3.20%) and eBay (-0.37%) revolutionized e-commerce and the way the world shops.
Cunliffe believes that the technology powering cryptocurrencies is here to stay, just as the internet ultimately prevailed, despite countless dotcom-era companies folding.
Significantly, the survivors of today, could become the victors a decade from now, the way Amazon.com grew to be so dominant after the dotcom crash.
Cunliffe emphasized that cryptocurrency’s technology has a strong application potential in the financial sector.
Looking past the uncertain cryptocurrency market, the Bank of England Deputy Governor “expects crypto technology and finance to continue”.
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